REPORT R-50 — OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE INDEX
PUBLISHED 2026 · METHOD: TASK-LEVEL EXPOSURE, NOT OPINION

50 JOBS AI WILL REPLACE FIRST

Every chatbot can guess a list of jobs. This is not a guess. Each occupation below is scored by breaking the role into the duties people actually perform, scoring each duty against what current AI systems can execute end-to-end, and weighting by how much of the week that duty consumes. A job is not replaced. Tasks are. The jobs at the top of this list are the ones whose weeks are made almost entirely of replaceable tasks.

How to read this

  • Exposure score — share of the role's typical duty load that AI can already produce at acceptable quality. 80+ means the job is mostly automatable output.
  • On the chopping block — the three highest-risk duties inside that role.
  • What survives — the duties that hold value: physical execution, accountability, trust, judgment, field context.

Your personal score is almost never your job's average. Two people with the same title can sit 30 points apart depending on which duties fill their week. Run your own exposure assessment — it takes 60 seconds.

The index — ranked most exposed first

  1. 01Data Entry Clerk

    92%
    SEVERE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data entry — 95%
    • Form processing — 90%
    • Email sorting / triage — 88%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Internal meetings — 50%

  2. 02Telemarketer

    88%
    SEVERE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data entry — 95%
    • Scripted calls — 90%
    • CRM updates — 85%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Objection handling — 60%
    • Reporting — 64%

  3. 03Bookkeeper

    85%
    SEVERE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data entry — 95%
    • Invoice processing — 92%
    • Reconciliation — 90%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Compliance checks — 65%

  4. 04Translator

    84%
    SEVERE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Translation — 92%
    • Editing — 72%
    • Client email — 72%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Solitary study — 50%

  5. 05Customer Support Agent

    82%
    SEVERE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • FAQ answers — 95%
    • Chat support — 92%
    • Scripted calls — 90%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Escalation handling — 55%
    • Reporting — 64%

  6. 06Government Clerk

    82%
    SEVERE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data entry — 95%
    • Form processing — 90%
    • Record keeping — 82%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • In-person interaction — 15%
    • Internal meetings — 50%

  7. 07Junior Accountant

    80%
    SEVERE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data entry — 95%
    • Reconciliation — 90%
    • Spreadsheet work — 85%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Audit fieldwork — 55%

  8. 08Content Writer

    79%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Blog writing — 88%
    • SEO optimization — 82%
    • Editing — 72%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Research — 54%

  9. 09Paralegal

    78%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Filing — 85%
    • Document review — 82%
    • Case summaries — 80%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Internal meetings — 50%
    • Compliance checks — 65%

  10. 10Copywriter

    76%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Ad copy — 88%
    • Editing — 72%
    • Brand writing — 62%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Research — 54%

  11. 11Bank PO / Bank Officer

    74%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Form processing — 90%
    • Customer service — 70%
    • Loan review — 70%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cash handling — 50%
    • Internal meetings — 50%

  12. 12SEO Specialist

    74%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Keyword research — 88%
    • SEO optimization — 82%
    • Auditing — 72%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Internal meetings — 50%

  13. 13Financial Analyst

    74%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Spreadsheet work — 85%
    • Data analysis — 68%
    • Financial modeling — 65%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Internal meetings — 50%

  14. 14Data Analyst

    72%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Spreadsheet work — 85%
    • Dashboarding — 72%
    • Data analysis — 68%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Internal meetings — 50%
    • Research — 54%

  15. 15QA / Software Tester

    72%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Bug reporting — 78%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Test automation — 60%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Coordination — 40%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  16. 16Dropshipper

    72%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Posting content — 78%
    • Email outreach — 78%
    • Customer service — 70%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Coordination — 40%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  17. 17Recruiter

    70%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • CRM updates — 85%
    • Sourcing candidates — 82%
    • Email outreach — 78%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Interviewing people — 30%

  18. 18Blogger

    70%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Blog writing — 88%
    • Keyword research — 88%
    • SEO optimization — 82%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Research — 54%

  19. 19Social Media Manager

    68%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Posting content — 78%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Trend research — 60%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Brand work — 45%
    • Internal meetings — 50%

  20. 20Radiologist

    68%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Monitoring — 55%
    • Documentation — 52%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Team management — 30%
    • Consultation — 40%

  21. 21Video Editor

    66%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Asset production — 75%
    • Editing — 72%
    • Color grading — 62%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Client delivery — 40%

  22. 22Insurance Agent

    66%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Form processing — 90%
    • Cold outreach — 80%
    • Compliance checks — 65%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • In-person interaction — 15%
    • Relationship building — 18%

  23. 23Graphic Designer

    65%
    HIGH
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Asset production — 75%
    • Visual design — 65%
    • Revisions — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  24. 24Frontend Developer

    63%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Writing code — 62%
    • Code review — 60%
    • Debugging — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  25. 25Chartered Accountant (CA)

    62%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Reconciliation — 90%
    • Tax prep — 78%
    • Compliance checks — 65%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Team management — 30%

  26. 26Investment Banker

    62%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Financial modeling — 65%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Presentations — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Negotiation — 25%
    • Client meetings — 28%

  27. 27Database Administrator

    62%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Auditing — 72%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Test automation — 60%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Coordination — 40%
    • System design — 40%

  28. 28Stock Trader

    62%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data analysis — 68%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Monitoring — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Decision-making — 30%
    • Long hours — 40%

  29. 29Illustrator

    60%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Asset production — 75%
    • Visual design — 65%
    • Revisions — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  30. 30Backend Developer

    60%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Writing code — 62%
    • Code review — 60%
    • Debugging — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • System design — 40%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  31. 31Delivery Executive

    60%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Navigation — 78%
    • Customer service — 70%
    • Driving — 65%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • In-person interaction — 15%
    • Physical labor — 15%

  32. 32Mobile App Developer

    60%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Writing code — 62%
    • Code review — 60%
    • Debugging — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  33. 33Statistician

    60%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data analysis — 68%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Statistical modeling — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  34. 34Software Engineer

    58%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Writing code — 62%
    • Code review — 60%
    • Debugging — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%
    • System design — 40%

  35. 35Journalist

    58%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Fact-checking — 78%
    • Editing — 72%
    • Writing longform — 62%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Field reporting — 25%
    • Client meetings — 28%

  36. 36E-commerce Seller

    58%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Posting content — 78%
    • Email outreach — 78%
    • Customer service — 70%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Coordination — 40%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  37. 37Screenwriter

    58%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Editing — 72%
    • Writing longform — 62%
    • Reading — 60%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Time on a screen — 42%

  38. 38HR Manager

    56%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Compliance checks — 65%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Hiring / screening — 62%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Emotional labor — 10%
    • In-person interaction — 15%

  39. 39UX Designer

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Visual design — 65%
    • Wireframing — 60%
    • Presentations — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Team management — 30%

  40. 40Pharmacist

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Customer service — 70%
    • Inventory checks — 68%
    • Compliance checks — 65%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • In-person interaction — 15%
    • Documentation — 52%

  41. 41Driver / Cab Driver

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Navigation — 78%
    • Customer service — 70%
    • Driving — 65%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • In-person interaction — 15%
    • On-location work — 20%

  42. 42Data Engineer

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data analysis — 68%
    • Writing code — 62%
    • Test automation — 60%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%
    • System design — 40%

  43. 43Blockchain Developer

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Writing code — 62%
    • Code review — 60%
    • Debugging — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%
    • System design — 40%

  44. 44Game Developer

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Visual design — 65%
    • Writing code — 62%
    • Debugging — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%
    • Testing — 45%

  45. 45Freelancer

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Client email — 72%
    • Revisions — 55%
    • Research — 54%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Client delivery — 40%

  46. 46Author / Novelist

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Editing — 72%
    • Client email — 72%
    • Writing longform — 62%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Solitary study — 50%

  47. 47Animator / 3D Artist

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Asset production — 75%
    • Visual design — 65%
    • Revisions — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%

  48. 48VFX Artist

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Asset production — 75%
    • Editing — 72%
    • Visual design — 65%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Client meetings — 28%
    • Cross-team collaboration — 30%

  49. 49Meteorologist

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data analysis — 68%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Statistical modeling — 55%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Time on a screen — 42%
    • Documentation — 52%

  50. 50Economist

    55%
    MODERATE
    ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
    • Data analysis — 68%
    • Reporting — 64%
    • Writing longform — 62%
    WHAT SURVIVES
    • Internal meetings — 50%
    • Documentation — 52%

If you are a student, read this instead

You are not choosing a job. You are choosing a duty mix for the next forty years. Pick the path whose surviving duties you can actually stand doing: physical execution, licensed accountability, taste and direction, negotiation and trust, or field judgment. Then learn to direct AI inside that path before your batch does. The degree matters less than the proof you can show at twenty-two.

Methodology

Scores are derived from our task exposure index: each occupation is decomposed into its constituent duties, each duty is assigned an automation-risk value based on demonstrated capability of current production AI systems, and the occupation score is the duty-weighted average adjusted for physical execution, accountability, trust and field context. Scores are directional, not predictions of any individual's employment.

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